China’s steel exports in October rose by 5.2pc from September to 4.04mn t as Chinese mills shifted supplies to overseas markets with falling domestic prices.
But the October exports fell by 15.5pc from a year earlier, according to preliminary customs data. January-October exports fell by 19.3pc from a year earlier to 44.43mn t.
Most October steel exports shipments were spot orders taken in late August and September when Chinese domestic steel prices were on a downwards trend. Shanghai hot-rolled coil (HRC) ex-warehouse prices fell by 220 yuan/t ($33/t) during 31 August-30 September against an increase of Yn100/t for 30 July-31 August.
Prices were under pressure from record output and rising inventories. China’s crude steel output hit a record pace of 3.09mn t/d in September after setting a monthly high in August. January-September steel output rose by 4.5pc to 781.59mn t, according to national bureau of statistics data.
China iron and steel association Cisa member mills’ steel inventories of 11.6mn t at the end of September were 7pc higher than a year earlier. Cisa data includes more than 100 of the country’s largest mills.
A recovery in global steel demand lifted prices in other major steel exporting countries over this period of a downtrend in China.
The Argus Indian domestic HRC index has increased by 1,500 rupees/t ($20/t) to Rs40,500t/t ex-Mumbai during 28 August-25 September. Chinese trading firms and mills seized the chance and aggressively sold export cargoes. More than 100,000t of Chinese SAE grade coil was sold to Vietnam in September, at least twice the spot sales in August, according to Argus market data.
China’s steel exports may increase further in November and December after mills received more spot orders for HRC and wire rod from Vietnam and South America in October. An east China producer told Argus that it increased its monthly HRC export quota from 20,000t to 50,000-100,000t from October. Most Chinese mills have sold out their HRC and wire rod export allotments for this year.
China is still unlikely to catch up with the steel export levels last year even with the recent rebound in shipments. A key east China exporter expects Chinese steel exports to fall by at least 10mn t to around 50mn t this year.
Imports slow from 16-year high
China’s steel imports in October fell by 33pc from a six-year high in September to 1.93mn t and rose by 88.5pc from a year earlier.
January-October imports rose by 73.9pc from a year earlier to 17.71mn.
China’s imports of finished and semi-finished steel and iron-based metallics have increased this year to meet consumer demand not met by its 1bn t/yr steel output.